The Wideband Delphi Technique is a useful method that organizations can use to address the issues of estimating the time and costs of projects.
In how many cases have you witnessed project failure or significant slippage because of underestimation or other project risks? If estimates are not accurate, the result may be expenses that exceed the planned amounts, delays, and dissatisfied clients.
This is where the Wideband Delphi Technique comes into play – a method that is specifically created to address such issues directly. The Wideband Delphi Technique is a group estimation procedure that can be repeated and is free of prejudice and self-interest. As the technique involves several rounds of estimation and discussion, it improves the estimates, making it a very useful tool in project management.
No matter, if it is managing software development, construction or any other project, familiarizing and applying the Wideband Delphi Technique, can result in more accurate results and better decisions.
This guide will introduce the WDT, its formula, its applications and case studies on how the technique has been used effectively in different fields.
Understanding Wideband Delphi In Project Management
Definition and Background
Wideband Delphi is an estimation technique derived from the classical Delphi method, which is a structured communication procedure developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s.
The Wideband Delphi Technique applies this specifically for project management since estimation in this field is vital. While the conventional Delphi approach entails the use of anonymous responses, Wideband Delphi is a communicative process that occurs in a group of experts. The technique is usually carried out in several cycles of estimation, in which participants submit their estimations individually and then discuss them in a group.
This process is helpful in reducing prejudices, using the knowledge of many individuals and achieving a better convergence.
Importance of Understanding Wideband Delphi
The Wideband Delphi Technique is useful in project management because it is used to generate reliable estimates, which are important when managing a project.
McConnell stated, "The precision of project estimates is the key to the success of a project." The Wideband Delphi Technique minimizes overconfidence or pessimism in estimates due to the involvement of several experts and iterative discussions. This collective wisdom approach guarantees that all the potential variables and risks associated with a given project are evaluated fully and, therefore, more accurate and practical project plans are developed.
This technique is very helpful in large projects, especially in software development or large construction projects that have high variability and uncertainty.
The Wideband Delphi Technique fine-tunes estimates in several rounds, enabling project managers to assign necessary resources, establish reasonable timeframes, and increase stakeholders' trust in the project outcomes.
The Wideband Delphi Technique & How It Helps With Estimation?
Key Features of Wideband Delphi Technique
The Wideband Delphi Technique has some characteristics that make it more accurate and reliable in terms of project estimates.
One of the main elements is the number of rounds of estimation, in which a group of specialists independently gives their estimation of a specific task or part of a project. The estimates are then presented and can be debated within the group; therefore, the experts can make corrections based on the collective opinion. Another important aspect is the possibility to remain anonymous, which minimizes the impact of such individuals who try to dominate the conversation and prevents everyone from feeling that they are under pressure to speak or not to speak.
This feature is especially crucial in avoiding fallacies like groupthink or the bandwagon fallacy, in which people tend to follow others' estimates to avoid disagreement.
As a result of encouraging originality and rediscussion, the Wideband Delphi Technique enhances the reliability of project estimates immensely.
Step-by-Step Process for Wideband Delphi Estimation
The following structured steps are required: First, there is the necessity to prepare, during which the project manager gathers a team of professionals with knowledge in the given field and experience in project work.
Defining a project and its deliverables, as well as the individual work items to be priced, should be described in detail.
After that, the first round of estimation is carried out, in which each of the experts makes his or her estimation independently. These estimates are then gathered and accumulated without immediate deliberation. The next phase is the group discussion phase, which involves looking at the aggregated estimates, and the experts can justify their estimates and assumptions.
Such an open discussion enables the identification of those aspects that might have been left out or clarification on certain issues that might not be very clear. After the discussion, there is another round of estimation in which the experts refine their estimates concerning what they have learned.
This process can continue for several cycles until the estimates are reasonable and close to the consensus estimates. Lastly, consolidation is done by taking the average of the final set of estimates or the most agreed-upon figures for planning and decision-making for a particular project.
Thus, in addition to increasing the accuracy of the estimates, the Wideband Delphi Technique also enhances the team members' understanding of the project.
Delphi Technique – A Step-by-Step Guide
- Select a Facilitator: Begin by selecting a facilitator who has a clear understanding of the issue at hand. This individual should be impartial and knowledgeable about data collection, as they will oversee and guide the decision-making process. For this scenario, let's refer to the facilitator as Ryan.
- Gather Your Experts: The success of implementing the PMP Delphi technique hinges on this step. It's crucial to assemble a group of experts who will lead the discussion. These individuals should be specialists from your industry, bringing valuable insights to the table.
- Clarify the Problem: It's vital to thoroughly grasp the problem you're addressing. Is the PMP Delphi technique appropriate for this situation? If so, what specific forecasts or estimates are you aiming to achieve?
- First Round of Questions: Ryan distributes the initial set of questionnaires to the experts. These questions are generally open-ended, encouraging the experts to brainstorm and share their perspectives freely. This approach helps Ryan capture a range of viewpoints. Once the experts submit their responses, Ryan compiles them into a summary report while ensuring that the identities of the experts remain anonymous.
- Second Round of Questions: Using the insights from the first round, Ryan creates a new set of questionnaires. The goal here is to push the experts to delve deeper into the issue. After gathering the responses, Ryan analyzes them, looking for commonalities and discarding any irrelevant information. He then prepares another summary report and shares it with the experts.
- It's important to note that some experts may reconsider their views after reviewing the first summary report. This is a natural part of the process, as seeing their peers' opinions may prompt them to reassess their own stance.
- Third Round of Questions: Ryan continues to repeat the process from rounds one and two until all the experts reach a consensus. Once their predictions align, Ryan can pause and take a moment to relax. If the experts have not yet agreed, additional rounds are conducted until a unanimous decision is achieved.
- Implement Your Findings: Now that the experts have reached a consensus on the recommended course of action, it's time to put the findings into practice. This typically involves developing a plan that incorporates effective time management strategies to address the issue.
Download a PDF of Andrew Stellman and Jennifer Greene's Explanation of the Wideband Delphi Technique
Getting Started With The Wideband Delphi Formula
Formula Explanation
The Wideband Delphi Formula is a technique that enables the consolidation of experts' different estimates into a single, improved forecast.
his formula is usually obtained by finding the average or median of the estimated values generated by the specialists.
However, the process is more complex than simple averaging since it entails several cycles where the specialists modify their estimations depending on the opinions of the other members of the group. This iterative refinement assists in reducing the estimates and arriving at the most appropriate one. The basic formula can be represented as:
Final Estimate = ∑ Individual Estimates/Number of Experts
Wideband delphi technique formula In practice, the formula may also incorporate weighting the estimates according to the participant's confidence level or level of experience.
This ensures that those estimates likely to be more informed or confident have a more pronounced impact on the final result. Thus, with the help of the Wideband Delphi Formula, a project manager can get a more accurate and reliable estimate, taking into account the opinion of several other experts.
Practical Tips to Use Wideband Delphi Technique
Several suggestions can be made when using the Wideband Delphi Technique for the first time to avoid mistakes and receive accurate results.
First, it is necessary to choose the right specialists – those with an adequate amount of knowledge and experience in the estimated object field. This is because it is easier for a diverse team of professionals to look at a problem from a wide angle and perhaps come up with more risks and uncertainties than a more focused person. Second, it is necessary to define the criteria and rules for estimation so that all the experts understand what should be estimated and what parameters should be considered.
This involves the identification of the boundaries of the project, the assumptions that will be made and any limitations that may affect the estimates.
Also, managing open and structured discussions during the estimation rounds is one of the critical success factors. Expert-led questioning of their thinking and assumptions enables the identification of different assumptions and variations in perception. Finally, it is also wise to apply anonymity where possible because people with big egos or those who would like to impose their opinions upon others will refrain from doing so.
The above practical tips on using the Wideband Delphi Technique will help organizations achieve better estimates when used in project management.
More Examples of Wideband Delphi
Examples from Case Studies
Wideband delphi technique examplei is the software development industry, where the method is applied to enhance timeline precision.
For example, a high-tech firm introduced a new software application platform that employed the Wideband Delphi Technique to estimate the development time for different features. This means that the company could decrease the time estimate by 20% in the first round of estimation by involving developers, project managers and testers who could point out the hitherto unknown complexities.
An example from the application area is a hospital that applied the technique to determine the costs and time needed for implementing a new EHR system. During more detailed discussions with experts, they defined possible critical points regarding the data migration and user training, which helped to have a more realistic budget and time estimation.
The following case studies showed how the Wideband Delphi Technique assists in revealing such latent factors, improving the planning and resource estimation processes.
Industry Applications
The broad usage of the Wideband Delphi Technique not only remains limited to the context of project management but is also helpful in forecasting and strategic planning.
In the financial sector, for example, the technique has been applied to assess the market trends and the likely economic changes as information is gathered from different economists and market analysts. This approach ensures that the other views are incorporated to develop a holistic view of the issue.
In terms of strategic planning, organizations apply the Wideband Delphi Technique to identify threats and opportunities within the business environment, thus contributing to formulating business strategies. Through the use of this method, various organizations can handle uncertainties better since they are in a position to make decisions that accommodate most of the experts' opinions.
Because of this flexibility, the Wideband Delphi Technique is a very effective method for any situation that calls for consensus and accurate prediction.
Pros and Cons of Wideband Delphi Technique:
The Wideband Delphi technique offers numerous advantages, making it a valuable method for project estimation.
One of its key strengths lies in its consensus-driven approach, which empowers all team members by fostering agreement among them regarding the estimates. This collective agreement significantly reduces the likelihood of errors, leading to more reliable outcomes. Research indicates that consensus-based methods like Wideband Delphi can improve estimation accuracy by up to 30% compared to traditional methods.
Also, the technique not only leverages the expertise of seasoned professionals intimately familiar with the project's scope and requirements but also recognizes and appreciates their significant contribution. This involvement ensures that the estimates are grounded in practical experience and align closely with the project's needs. Studies have shown that involving experts in estimating can enhance accuracy by 20% to 50%.
A distinctive feature of the Wideband Delphi technique is its emphasis on anonymity. By keeping participants' identities confidential, the method minimizes the influence of dominant personalities or higher-ranking individuals, thereby reducing the risk of bias. This focus on objective, unbiased input instills confidence in the estimates, making them more reflective of the team's collective expertise rather than individual influence.
However, the Wideband Delphi technique is not without its challenges.
A significant drawback is the necessity for solid management support. The process's success often hinges on the commitment of leadership to facilitate and respect the outcomes. Without this buy-in, the process may not continue as smoothly. Moreover, the technique can be time-intensive, requiring multiple rounds of estimation and discussion, extending over several days or weeks. This extended timeline can pose difficulties for projects operating under tight deadlines, potentially delaying critical decision-making.
Wrapping up
The Wideband Delphi Technique is a powerful tool that helps obtain accurate project estimates and make the right decision.
Regarding its main characteristics, we discussed its successive estimation cycles and the possibility of anonymity, which helps to decrease the influence of bias and increases the objectivity of the results.
They have successfully used it in software development projects and the healthcare system to identify the underlying assumptions and improve estimates. Apart from project management, its suitability in forecasting and strategic planning makes it valuable in many fields. You should learn more about the Wideband Delphi Technique and apply it in your projects to improve the plans' accuracy and the projects' outcomes.